March 2: Argentina continues to ferment weather speculation, soybean meal after a week of adjustment to return to the upward trend. Affected by the external disk, the bean meal is singing all the way after the festival, and this week still maintains a good upward trend. From May contracts, the increase in option turnover was mainly due to the rising activity of call contracts, while the volume of put contracts declined slightly. Observing the trading positions of each execution price, we find that the call option increases its position at 3100 price level, while the activity and increase range of the put option decrease gradually at 3000 price recently, which indicates that the market sentiment is still optimistic. The implied volatility of the average call option and the implied volatility of the average put option ranged from 15% to 16%, showing a slow upward trend in the near future, while the 30-day historical volatility of M180 5 remained around 14%, with little volatility.
Drought damage and soybean yield per unit area
Argentina's soybean-producing areas continue to pose a threat to soybean yield due to sparse precipitation, and the situation of soybean production in the country is becoming increasingly serious. It is expected that the weather speculation will continue until the end of La Nina weather in April, and the corresponding price rise will still exist. Soybean sowing in Argentina in 2017/2018 is now over, with 18 million hectares of soybean sown, down from 19.2 million hectares in 2016/2017. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered soybean production in 2017/2018 to 47 million tons.
Brazil's soybean production is still high, and Argentina's output is still hard to meet. Agroconsul, a Brazilian analyst, expects Brazilian soybean production to reach a record 117.5 million tons, AgRural, a Brazilian private analyst, expects 116 million tons of Brazilian soybean in 2017/2018, and the National Commodity Supply Company, a subsidiary of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, expects 115.6 million tons of Brazilian soybean this year. With the highest forecast of 117 million tons, Brazil's output is up 3 million tons from 114 million tons last year, while Argentina is expected to cut 10 million tons, reducing supply pressures in South America, lowering global inventories and boosting soybean prices.
Domestic oil plant start-up rate to be resumed
Most of the oil plants resumed operation this week, but due to 5.56 million tons of soybeans arriving in February and 6.7 million tons of soybeans arriving in March, the speed of resumption was slow. Weekly crushing is expected to be 1.51 million tons this week, and is expected to rise to 1.89 million tons next week after a dramatic increase in operating rates. At present, many oil plants have not executed the contract, as of February 23, the week of non-execution of the contract 4.6179 million tons of soybean meal, compared with the previous week's 4.7583 million tons decreased by 3.24%, but compared with the same period last year 3.178 million tons increased by 32.26%. Due to the low start-up rate, soybean meal inventory continued to decline. As of February 23, the total stock of soybean meal in the main coastal areas of China was 710,200 tons, down 19.23% from 879,300 tons a week before the festival, which will provide some support for the price of soybean meal.
* pig prices fall, causing sluggish packing.
The average pig price in all provinces fell to 11.04 yuan / kg, down 5.08 yuan / kg from the same period last year, or 31.51%. At present, the decline has slowed down, but pig prices are at a low level, which will lead to a lag in feeding, thus slowing down the demand of downstream feed enterprises.
On the whole, Argentina's weather speculation is the main reason to support the increase of beans in the near future. However, the recovery rate of domestic oil plants has slowed down, and the stock of soybean meal has declined, making the oil refinery slash. There are many advantages and disadvantages in the internal and external markets to boost market bullish sentiment and promote even soybean meal to rise steadily. It is anticipated that there will be technical callback demand after the continuous rise of soybean meal, which can be repaid when the M1805 contract callback, to buy a call option with shallow imaginary value in May.