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Analysis of development trend of feed industry in 2010

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First, the industrial alliance will play an important role.
 
An important development trend in the future is the combination of government policies and industrial alliances. It is often more effective for the government to solve externalities through industrial alliances than to intervene in production activities directly. Industrial alliances will gradually become enterprise-led and market-oriented organizations, and will play an important role under the promotion of national and local governments. In 2008, the Ministry of Science and Technology took the lead in the pilot work of industrial alliance in IT industry, approved the formation of alliances such as "flash alliance" and "T-D alliance", and explored the ways of group army fighting and solving major technical problems in the industry. It can be said that this is a major revolution, breaking the traditional way of single support, through the industrial alliance to integrate the advantages of resources within the industry, to create a chain of technological innovation, to enhance industrial technological innovation and core competitiveness. This year, the Ministry of Science and Technology expanded the scope of pilot projects, approved the formation of more than 20 industrial alliances in the field of agriculture, industrial alliances to promote scientific and technological innovation is listed in the Ministry of Science and Technology in the future one of the three important strategies, industrial alliances will become the country's main grasp to promote scientific and technological progress.
 
Two, the upward trend of feed raw materials prices can not be changed.
 
According to statistics, China's energy feed shortage in 2000 was 66 million tons, and the protein feed shortage was 24 million tons. It is estimated that the energy feed shortage will reach 430-83 million tons by 2010, while the protein feed shortage will reach 33 million tons, and will reach 50 million tons by 2030. The restrictive effect of feed resources is also manifested in the high dependence on the international market, the excessive fluctuation of the price, which affects the healthy development of feed industry. As far as corn is concerned, the shortfall in 2010 will be 23.13 million tons, and more than 50 million tons will be imported by 2020, reaching about 25% of the total domestic demand, while imports are expected to reach 80 million tons by 2030. The import of soybean in 2007/2008 has more than twice the domestic output, and the import of fish meal in 2010 is expected to reach more than 33% of the global import. The high dependence of feed raw material supply on the international market leads to frequent price fluctuations and excessive volatility. From January to June 2008 alone, soybean meal rose by an average of 43% year-on-year, compared with 82% between May 2007 and June 2008.
 
Three, feed enterprises, premix enterprises and industrial integration enterprises three points.
 
In 2008, the total output value of the national feed industry was 425 billion 800 million yuan, and the total output of industrial feed reached 1.37 billion tons. Among them, the output of compound feed was 105.9 million tons, an increase of 13.64%; the output of concentrated feed was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 1.58%; the output of premixed feed with additives was 5.46 million tons, an increase of 4.79%. * for pig feed alone, the increase in formula feed and premix is representative in the future. The total output of * * pig feed was 28 million 930 thousand tons, an increase of 19.97% over the same period *, and the total output of pig concentrated feed increased by 13 million 740 thousand tons, an increase of 4.71% over the same period last year. The total output of pig premixed feed increased by 3 million 100 thousand tons, up 11.78% over the same period last In the current feed market, Zhengda, Xinhope, Shandong Liuhe, Tongwei and other formulated feed enterprises are represented, Zhengda Kangdi, Dabeinong and other premixed feed enterprises are represented, and Wenshi, Dalian, Hanwei, Beijing Deqingyuan Company (including Zhengbang Group and a number of large and medium-sized enterprises are transforming into industrial integration) is the contemporary era. The pattern of industrial integration in the form of "three points" is basically formed.
 
Four, speed up the process of employee distribution and employee turnover.
 
The promulgation of the new labor law is a serious blow to labor-intensive feed enterprises. The rising cost of employment and labor disputes have consumed a lot of energy. For the vast number of feed enterprises, the liquidity of their salesmen and the uncertainty of working hours make the unexpected risk factor increase, the cost of employment increase, which is difficult to bear for the feed enterprises in the stage of low profit. Therefore, under the impetus of seeking profits and avoiding disadvantages, more than 30% of the sales staff in feed enterprises will inevitably become the focus of enterprise adjustment, and the adoption of commission system will speed up the pace of employee distributors. First of all, this model can help salesmen develop a good sense of cost, take the initiative to save company resources, make good use of resources. Secondly, it will enhance their sense of ownership and bosses. It is beneficial to improve their management ability, realize benefit sharing, and let them share the benefits of business growth to a greater extent. Employment of distributors flattens sales channels, reduces channel costs, increases efficiency, reduces communication links, speeds up communication, and ensures the stability of channels. This channel marketing mode has many successful cases in our country, such as GREE electric appliances and so on. In the next few years, the feed field will also speed up the application of this model.
 
Five, 2010 will usher in a red day of feed and aquaculture industry.
 
I believe this conclusion will win applause, but the fact is that it will indeed develop. In the second half of 2008, it was a good opportunity for the industry to adjust. However, due to the government intervention, the existing market self-adjustment law was broken, so that the pig stockpile did not decrease, but continued to grow, especially the sow stockpile is still growing rapidly. In the first half of 2009 * sow population continued to grow, increasing by more than 30%. This result has raised the price of live pig * a new wave. In the second half of 2009, affected by epidemic diseases, raw materials soaring, animal and poultry products prices falling, inflation and other factors, the breeding industry began to enter an adjustment period, breeding chickens, breeding pigs began to phase out, the second half of 2010 livestock and poultry products prices will enter an upward stage.
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