Recently, the domestic soybean meal spot market is under the bad news pressure, the price continues to drop. Domestic soybean supply is adequate, since November imports of soybeans have arrived in Hong Kong in large quantities, and on December 3 the state will sell 300,000 tons of temporary reserve soybeans, the opening rate of domestic oil plants to maintain a high level, soybean meal supply is very adequate. The domestic terminal demand is low, coupled with domestic policy pressure, the recent market bearish news pressure is still large, the market is lack of good news to boost, continued to adjust the weak market.
1, supply pressure: domestic soybean meal supply is adequate.
Due to the higher price of oil meal in the early stage, the crushing profit of oil plants is at a higher level, and the operating rate of domestic oil plants is higher; and the supply of domestic soybean is sufficient, according to the statistics of China Feed Industry Information Network, the expected arrival volume in November 2010 is more than 5.2 million tons, plus the state will sell 300,000 tons on December 3; domestic supply is very sufficient.
2, demand pressure: slow inventory consumption
And the end market demand continues to be weak, oil plants and distributors inventory digestion rate is relatively slow, coupled with the market "buy up not buy down" mentality, feed enterprises and farmers as a whole stock rhythm continues to slow down, which is also a direct reason for the coastal oil plant soybean meal inventory pressure continued to increase. At present, the soybean meal stocks of large-scale feeding enterprises in East and South China are basically over 20-25 days, while those in North China are about 10-15 days. Most of the small and medium-sized feeding enterprises are on-demand. On the other hand, dealers have a lot of stock in hand, and some of them still have some high-priced contracts waiting for consumption, so it is expected that their inventory digestion cycle will be further extended accordingly.
3, policy crackdown: China's tightening monetary policy and its policy of dumping and storage are weighed down.
In order to curb high prices, the Chinese government has recently launched intensive measures to combat inflation, such as raising the reserve requirement ratio, 16 measures to stabilize the overall price level, the policy of dumping grain and oil into the market, and the control of hot money, which have exerted great negative pressure on the domestic and foreign agricultural futures markets. China plans to auction 300,000 tonnes of reserve soybeans this week, saying that if China auctions its own reserve soybeans, that means it won't need to import too many soybeans in the near future, putting short-term pressure on the price of U.S. soybeans. This also caused the external disc soybean price rebound, the factory around the rhythm of price adjustment is more cautious reasons.
Coastal oil refinery squeezing profits into the loss interval oil plant plans to shut down decompression
The price of domestic soybean meal has fallen in double-track recently. As of November 26, the price range of domestic grade 4 soybean oil is 9100 yuan / ton - 9300 yuan / ton, which is 700 yuan / ton - 900 yuan / ton from the high in early November. The transaction price of coastal soybean meal has concentrated to 3270 yuan / ton - 3350 yuan / ton (the northeast low has touched 3150 yuan / ton nearby), and coastal factories At this stage, the cost of imported soybean tax payment in Hong Kong has reached as high as 4000 yuan / ton - 4200 yuan / ton. According to the above soybean and oil meal prices, soybean crushing in oil factories has approached or entered a loss range, some factories can not bear the burden, and have planned to shut down in early December to ease the growing inventory pressure.
Long term domestic demand remains strong and drought in South America is supporting the market.
In the long run, China will remain a strong buyer for the outside world, and this year it has set a new record for imported soybeans to meet growing meat consumption. China's huge demand for squeezed market still needs a large number of imported soybeans. The La Nina phenomenon may lead to droughts in Argentina during the summer of December this year, next February. Argentina's soybean production is expected to reach 49.5 million tons, lower than the government's latest forecast of 52 million tons, according to a report released on November 25 by the Rosario Exchange, supporting the external legume market. To fully understand and master the spot market information and market situation of soybean meal futures, China Feed Industry Information Network soybean meal overvalued upgrade in November, immediately call 010-62810272/62829359-828 consultation.
Therefore, in general, the national price stability policy and domestic supply is adequate, but the terminal consumption is depressed, domestic soybean meal spot market short-term negative factors are still to be digested, not excluding the possibility of further decline. But the impact of strong potential demand in China, weather conditions in the South American region, European sovereign debt problems, and the Korean-Korean conflict on the dollar and other commodities remains to be seen. It is suggested that short-term shocks should be maintained.